NCAAF Week 7 Noteson October 14, 2012 at 11:05 am
Week 7 was a tough one for for us, and from the sounds of it, for many bettors whose opinion we respect more than our own. After a tough week, it’s always best to move on and try to learn something from each of your losing bets. Chalk Week 7 up as a learning experience if you gave some back to the books. If you were able to profit – nice job. Here’s a few takeaways from Week 7:
The Mountaineers have been one of the Public’s favorite teams all year and that didn’t change heading into week 7 as the West Virginia made another trip to Texas to take on the Red Raiders. This game was a prime example of “Squares vs. Sharps”. While we don’t always side with the Sharps, they smoked the Public on this game.
This was a classic example of a “sandwich” spot for West Virginia. They had traveled to Austin the week before and had to travel to Lubbock this week. Meanwhile, they host undefeated Kansas State next week in a very meaningful game in both the Big 12 and National Championship picture. Obviously we can’t determine if West Virginia was just “off” or if the travel played a part, but that was the worst game we’ve seen from them this year. Geno Smith looked average, and the rest of the offense didn’t look any better.
When handicapping game during a given week, be sure to take a look at travel. If your team is on at least the 2nd leg of a long road trip, you might want to lay off of the game all together. If the team has a “look-ahead” game the next week, meaning they play a “good” team in a meaningful game, you might want to lay off the game as well. This game sucked for West Virginia bettors, but I think we all learned something.
The Gamecocks vs. the Tigers was arguably the best game on the slate leading up to the week. Undefeated South Carolina, off a huge win against Georgia, traveled to Baton Rouge to take on the 1 loss LSU Tigers. This game was interesting from a betting standpoint because it was basically a coin flip. If you surveyed 10 people, you’d likely find 5 on South Carolina and 5 on LSU.
South Carolina seemed to have all of the momentum going into the game. LSU was coming off a brutal loss against Florida and was competing with a make-shift offensive line. Credit Les Miles and the Tigers because their offense did look better than it did last week against Florida. LSU dominated the game everywhere except the scoreboard. The Tigers picked 406 yards on offense and limited South Carolina to just 211.
Frankly, South Carolina bettors were pretty lucky. The Tigers couldn’t punch the ball into the endzone and had to settle for field goals. With just under two minutes left in the game, Spurrier stuck a dagger in the hearts of LSU bettors. Rather than kicking a field goal on 4th and 12, the Gamecocks decided to go for it. Connor Shaw hit Jerrell Adams for a first down that eventually led to a South Carolina Touchdown. The touchdown sealed a victory for South Carolina bettors. This game was such a coin flip, it might be best to stay out of situations like this in the future.
Color us impressed. Dan Mullen’s Bulldogs proved something to us on Saturday night, but their level of competition increases tremendously in two weeks. Before Saturday’s victory against Tennessee, the Bulldogs toughest game came against the Auburn Tigers. We found ourselves betting on the Vols in this game, only because we thought the Tennessee offense would prevail and Mississippi State really hadn’t been tested all season.
The Bulldogs looked extremely sharp on offense and really limited the Volunteers on defense. We still sense their might be smoke and mirrors with the Bulldogs though. Starkville has been a death trap for opposing teams in the past few years. There hasn’t been any stunning upsets, but teams just don’t play at their best in Starkville. Perhaps it’s the shitty stadium or the annoying ass cowbells. One thing is for sure, we’ll learn a lot about Mississippi State shortly.
The Bulldogs have a pretty tough three week stretch coming up: Oct 27 @Alabama. Nov 3 Texas A&M. Nov 10@ LSU. We would guess they’ll be underdogs in all three games. Be careful going forward. Mississippi State is undefeated, but they’ve also not played anyone nearly at the level of these 3 teams. If the line looks too good to be true, it probably is.
And speaking of cowbells, here’s the greatest cowbell skit ever.